Karina Simone Sass
Doctorate – Climate change, droughts and economic impacts: an analysis for the São Paulo Metropolitan Area
Advisor: Prof. Dr. Eduardo Amaral Haddad
Comission: Profs. Drs. Carlos Roberto Azzoni, Vinicius de Almeida Vale and Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli
Droughts, climate change, and economic impacts are the themes addressed in this thesis, which assumes that there is a gap in the literature about the economic effects of droughts on several economic activities in urban areas. Having the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (SPMA) as its focus, the aim of the study was to evaluate the occurrence of droughts in this region and estimate the potential effects that drought can impose on its economic activities. The analysis was divided into two parts. In the first, using historical and projected climate data, an analysis was carried out on the climate changes and droughts that occurred in the region, as well as on future trends. In the second part, the potential economic impacts that can be associated with droughts in the RMSP were evaluated. This assessment was done through integrated modeling that includes an econometric model and a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model. The results show droughts, which can become more intense and frequent in the future, can directly affect several industries and local economies.
*Abstract provided by the author