Bruno Toni Palialol
Doctorate – Essays in weather impacts on economy
Advisor: Profa. Dra. Paula Carvalho Pereda
Comission: Profs. Drs. Carlos Roberto Azzoni, Rudi Rocha de Castro and Jaqueline Maria de Oliveira
Link YouTube: https://youtu.be/sUSOUytSHOQ
This thesis examines three topics relating weather and economic outcomes. The first chapter, entitled “Do weather shocks affect wages in the non-agriculture sectors in Brazil? Evidence from employer-employee longitudinal data” asks whether there is a causal link between temperature and labor productivity in Brazil's formal labor markets. To that end, we use administrative employer-employee data and exploit monthly wage and weather data spanning the year 2015 to produce estimates from a model with worker and firm fixed effects, which allows us to deal with composition bias that likely plagues estimates obtained from models with city fixed effects only. We find that negative composition bias might occur when worker's and firm's characteristics are not controlled for. Our findings also show regional and gender heterogeneity in the impacts of temperature shocks on wages. The results seem to be driven by sectors classified by the literature as highly exposed to climate. The second chapter, entitled “The weather and COVID-19 transmission” uses a global cross-region panel of daily data on 416 regions and 93 days, with time and region fixed effects, to explore the exogenous variations of weather variables and COVID-19 transmission. We find that temperature reduces COVID-19 transmission up to 8.2%. These effects are stronger in cold, dry and arid climates, diminishing propagation by 12.0%, 12.1% and 11.4%, respectively. Still, it is not clear whether climatic conditions can alone stop or slow the outbreak, but they should be included in models to predict future cases of the disease. The third chapter, entitled “Weather variations and impacts on mortality in Brazil” uses an annual panel of 2,198 municipalities from 1980 to 2012 and interacts weather shocks with climate normals to estimate non-linear effects of climate on health. We find that positive precipitation shocks (+1mm) in a rainy season, increase mortality rates of children between 0 and 4 years old by 0.02%. Results suggest cities with low levels of education and infrastructure are more affected by temperature and precipitation variations. Our findings will help improving economic models by shedding light on key determinants of the weather-health relation.
*Abstract provided by the author